What will security guarantees for Ukraine look like?
From boots on the ground to economic sanctions, here are the measures that might stop Russia taking another bite out of Ukraine
European countries are working with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on proposed "security guarantees" to protect any future peace deal, measures that Donald Trump has suggested he will support after the historic White House meeting earlier this week.
There is a "wide spectrum" of what this could mean in practice, said the BBC, and a "big question mark" remains over what guarantees Russia will be willing to accept.
What did the commentators say?
The "inherent contradiction" of any security guarantees is that they must be "robust enough" to deter Russia from a future attack, but "not so robust" that Russia refuses to accept them and "threatens to target Western assets" in Ukraine, said the BBC. "Nobody wants to start World War Three."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Trump has ruled out Nato membership for Ukraine and US boots on the ground, but Europe still hopes that Washington will agree to provide logistics and intelligence, and a backstop of military air support if Russia were to renege on any peace deal.
Even for Europe, "I don't think boots on the ground is a credible answer", military analyst Sean Bell told Sky News. Policing the 600-mile border would require 100,000 soldiers at a time and a force of 300,000 to allow for training and rotations. The entire UK army would only make up 10% of that, with France likely to be able to contribute a further 10%.
It's unclear what Putin and Trump agreed at the Alaska summit but the White House claimed Russia had accepted "Nato-style protection" for Ukraine. US special envoy Steve Witkoff described the security guarantees that Putin had accepted as "Article 5-like", referring to Nato's mutual defence clause.
Keir Starmer said the coalition of the willing is "preparing for the deployment of a reassurance force" in the event of "hostilities ending". In practice, that is likely to involve "protecting Ukraine from the skies and sea" and helping to train and replenish its depleted armed forces – or an agreement "with only the threat of military involvement once any deal is breached", said The Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
What next?
The question remains: how would the coalition respond if its forces were attacked or Russia re-invaded?
"A formal pledge to fight Russia would amount to Article 5 by other means", while a "vague mandate" might "tempt Russia to test European resolve", said The Economist. France's President Emmanuel Macron said the ultimate guarantee would be the strengthening of Ukraine's own – currently much beleaguered – armed forces and thus Russia should not be allowed to impose limits on the size or capability of those forces in a peace deal.
But Kyiv and Moscow's positions remain far apart on territory, said The Economist, and the "Trumpian vision of a peace deal" relies on Russia agreeing to security guarantees for Ukraine, "a state it denies exists".
-
Will California’s Proposition 50 kill gerrymandering reform?Talking Points Or is opposing Trump the greater priority for voters?
-
‘The trickle of shutdowns could soon become a flood’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Wikipedia: Is ‘neutrality’ still possible?Feature Wikipedia struggles to stay neutral as conservatives accuse the site of being left-leaning
-
Proposed Trump-Putin talks in Budapest on holdSpeed Read Trump apparently has no concrete plans to meet with Putin for Ukraine peace talks
-
What is Donald Trump planning in Latin America?Today’s Big Question US ramps up feud with Colombia over drug trade, while deploying military in the Caribbean to attack ships and increase tensions with Venezuela
-
Can Gaza momentum help end the war in Ukraine?Today's Big Question Zelenskyy’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles hints at ‘warming relations’ between Ukraine and US
-
Remaking the military: Pete Hegseth’s war on diversity and ‘fat generals’Talking Point The US Secretary of War addressed military members on ‘warrior ethos’
-
How does the Nobel Peace Prize work?The Explainer Activist María Corina Machado wins prestigious prize, despite public campaign by Donald Trump
-
Israel, Hamas agree to first step of Trump peace planSpeed Read Israel’s military pulls back in Gaza amid prisoner exchange
-
Israel and Hamas meet on hostages, Trump’s planSpeed Read Hamas accepted the general terms of Trump’s 20-point plan, including the release of all remaining hostages
-
US tipped to help Kyiv strike Russian energy sitesSpeed Read Trump has approved providing Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure