Trump's payroll tax plan would bust the Social Security Trust Fund by 2023, chief actuary estimates

An estimate from the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration certainly won't allay fears about President Trump's promise to terminate payroll taxes should he get re-elected.

In a letter addressed to Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Stephen Goss said that if, hypothetically, payroll taxes were eliminated after Jan. 1, 2021, and there was no alternative source of revenue in place, Social Security's Disability Insurance Trust Fund "would become permanently depleted in about the middle of the calendar year 2021, with no ability to pay DI benefits thereafter." The reserves for the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, meanwhile, would last until just 2023.

As Goss noted, no one has actually proposed any such legislation, and the Trump administration has maintained they won't allow the funds to run out under Trump's plan, but it's also not clear if the executive branch has the power to do that. Instead, using general revenue to keep the the reserves filled would require an act of Congress, CNBC previously reported. Meanwhile, business owners have said they are unlikely to implement even the temporary deferral of payroll taxes due to legal and technical uncertainties. Tim O'Donnell

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