U.S. and Britain reportedly believe the Ukraine war could last 10-20 years, become a Russian quagmire
As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled. Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports.
Despite Moscow's "shambolic start to its military campaign, most Western officials and analysts believe Russia will turn to criminal siege tactics and eventually find a way to break through Ukraine's fierce and valiant resistance," Politico's Alex Ward writes. A U.S. official tells CBS News that Russia could tactically seize Kyiv and Ukraine in four to six weeks.
Still, "given the durability of the Ukrainian resistance and its long history of pushing Russia back, the U.S. and Western powers do not believe that this will be a short war," CBS News reports. "The U.K. foreign secretary estimated it would be a 10-year war. Lawmakers at the Capitol were told Monday it is likely to last 10, 15, or 20 years — and that ultimately, Russia will lose."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A long, drawn-out quagmire would obviously be bad for Russian President Vladimir Putin and for Ukraine's citizens, but it also has repercussions for President Biden, CBS's Margaret Brennan noted Tuesday night.
Emily Harding, a former National Security Council staffer, warned Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe should prepare for 8-10 years of economically disruptive conflict in Ukraine, Roll Call reports. If the U.S. sticks with Ukraine and supports its shadow war, "Russian casualties will be through the roof," former CIA Afghanistan operations chief Michael Vickers told the same CSIS audience. "This could be an insurgency that is bigger than our Afghan one in the 1980s in terms of things we could provide them that would really hurt Russia."
"There is not going to be a Vichy Ukraine," former U.S. Ukraine Ambassador John Herbst told the Post. "There may be an effort to create it but the Ukrainians are not going to go gently into the good night. They are going to fight like hell."
One question going forward, "Is Putin willing to go full barbarian on Ukraine or full Strangelove on nuclear stuff?" Herbst said. "And question two is: Will the military apparatus carry out such instructions?"
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
5 high rating cartoons about Biden's low poll numbers
Cartoons Artists take on checklists, ice creams, and more
By The Week US Published
-
A gastronomic tour of the Costa de la Luz
The Week Recommends This Spanish spot has fantastic restaurants "rooted in the region's distinctive produce"
By The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: May 19, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
A brief timeline of Russia's war in Ukraine
In Depth How the Kremlin's plan for a quick conquest turned into a quagmire
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Why is Ukraine backing far-right militias in Russia?
Today's Big Question The role of the fighters is a 'double-edged sword' for Kyiv, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
What does victory now look like for Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Not losing is as important as winning as the tide turns in Russia's favour again
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
Israel proposes two-month pause in Gaza war in exchange for all Hamas hostages
Speed Read Deal doesn't include an agreement to end war, but might be 'the only path that could lead to a ceasefire', said US officials
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Nato official warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years
Speed Read Civilians must prepare for life-changing conflict and mass mobilisation, says military chief
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak visits Kyiv to announce £2.5 billion in military support for Ukraine
Speed Read Surprise trip comes amid increased Russian bombardment and escalation of Middle East crisis
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
British warship repels 'largest Houthi attack to date' in the Red Sea
Speed read Western allies warn of military response to Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels if attacks on ships continue
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Russia's thorny convict-soldier problem
Under the Radar Putin's Ministry of Defense, like Wagner, is recruiting soldiers from Russian prisons to fight his Ukraine war. Russians aren't excited about them returning home.
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published