What do Xi’s military purges mean for Taiwan?

Purges are a regular feature of life in the Chinese military, and they have now stretched all the way to the top: Gen. Zhang Youxia, the country’s most senior general, was arrested last week on corruption allegations. That leaves the People’s Liberation Army leadership unsettled and raises questions about Beijing’s designs on Taiwan.

Zhang’s ouster makes leader Xi Jinping the “sole voice” deciding China’s path on Taiwan, said The Wall Street Journal. For now, though, a “near-term invasion of Taiwan” is seen as “less likely.”

Xi instead is seen as “pivoting” to attempts to “break Taipei’s resolve” by leaning on a variety of military and economic tactics that “fall just below the threshold of open conflict,” said the Journal. The military leadership of China “may be in flux,” but Xi’s focus on eventually taking Taiwan “remains unyielding.”

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China’s military has “undergone a sweeping anti-corruption purge” in recent years, said NBC News. The ousters have allowed Xi to consolidate his power. But Zhang’s arrest also “increases the risk of a miscalculation” regarding Taiwan, said Steve Tsang, the director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, to NBC. There are few generals left who would “dare to advise Xi against a military adventure when the time comes.”

What did the commentators say?

Xi has reached a “tipping point” in his battle to bring the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “under his absolute personal control,” said John Garnaut at The New York Times. The shake-up furthers his long-term goal of building a force “capable of conquering Taiwan and prevailing in a potential confrontation” with the U.S. Xi sees “absolute ideological unity and personal loyalty” as essential to the task and believes he can “cultivate a new generation of leaders in short order” to get there quickly.

Under Xi, China is “taking advantage” of the current period of “cross-strait calm” to get prepared for any future conflict, said Jonathan A. Czin and John Culver at Foreign Affairs. The Trump administration “does not seem to be especially ready” to go to war over Taiwan, and politics in Taipei are “shifting in Beijing’s favor” ahead of the island’s 2028 election. That gives Xi space to build a military leadership that meets his standards of “party loyalty and operational proficiency.”

The latest purge by Xi “should worry the world,” said The Economist. The Taiwan Strait is already a “perennial flashpoint” for potential conflict, with Chinese and U.S. forces both operating in the region. “Cooler heads” would be needed if a “mishap” brought the two sides into conflict. But with the “hollowing out” of PLA leadership, where would Xi turn? Zhang was one such person. Will yes-men who take Zhang’s place be willing to warn Xi of the “enormous risks” of an attack on Taiwan?

What next?

Zhang’s “downfall” compounds “intrigue” ahead of an expected Communist leadership shuffle in 2027, said Bloomberg. Xi is expected to seek a fourth term in leadership. The general had the “clout to potentially mobilize opposition to any succession plans.” But Chinese government secrecy makes it difficult to “know for sure if Xi faced a serious challenge to his power.”