Oscar predictions 2026: who is likely to win?

The 2026 Academy Awards ceremony is still three months away but the buzz has already begun. As nominations for the main prizes inch closer, the shortlists in 12 other categories have been announced, with “Wicked: For Good” and “Sinners” leading the pack with recognition in everything from casting to cinematography. Last year, Mikey Madison’s shock best actress win for her starring role in “Anora” reminded us the Oscars will always be unpredictable. So critics have once again been offering their two pennies’ worth ahead of this year’s big night.

Best picture

“One Battle After Another” is “dominating the awards conversation”, said Caryn James on the BBC. “How could you not love a film that has Leonardo DiCaprio running around in a bathrobe, hilariously trying to remember the password that would allow a revolutionary group to save his kidnapped daughter?” Despite receiving several nominations over his esteemed career, director Paul Thomas Anderson has “mysteriously” never won an Oscar – but his latest film is “by far, the year’s hottest awards contender”.

Right now it feels like “Hamnet” is the “contender to beat”, said Robbie Collin in The Telegraph. “Preview screenings of this adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s 2020 historical novel have enraptured critics and audiences alike.” Directed by Chloé Zhao, the film follows William and Agnes Shakespeare as they come to terms with the loss of their 11-year-old son.

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Box office smash-hit “Sinners” occupies another “key spot”, said Joey Nolfi in Entertainment Weekly, with “Marty Supreme”, “Frankenstein” and “Bugonia” also “jockeying” for position in this year’s race. Other contenders to keep an eye on include “Sentimental Value” and “It Was Just an Accident”, both of which look set to “continue the recent Cannes-initiated trend of high-brow global dramas hitting big with the Academy’s increasingly international votership”.

Best director

“Dynamic off-screen stories never hurt an awards campaign,” said James on the BBC, and Jafar Panahi’s is surely the most “dramatic” of all. The acclaimed Iranian director made “It Was Just An Accident” in secret and “sent it out of Iran on a thumb drive”. Having already scooped the Palme d’Or at Cannes, Panahi could now be in with a chance of winning the best director Oscar.

Paul Thomas Anderson is building an “unstoppable case for his first competitive Oscar win”, said Clayton Davis in Variety, and Ryan Coogler also received a “boost” to his campaign after being named runner-up for best director at the LAFCA Awards earlier in December for “Sinners”.

Best actor in a leading role

Ethan Hawke is “quickly becoming a viable force” for best actor with his “revelatory” portrayal of “Broadway legend” Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon”, said Davis in Variety. He’ll be competing in a “cutthroat match” between Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothée Chalamet, for their starring roles in “One Battle After Another” and “Marty Supreme” respectively.

Jeremy Allen White could also “sneak in” for his turn as Bruce Springsteen in Scott Cooper’s biopic, said Nolfi in Entertainment Weekly. But it’s Dwayne Johnson’s performance as mixed martial artist Mark Kerr in “The Smashing Machine” that “we have our eye on for the long run”.

Best actress in a leading role

Jessie Buckley is “out front” for her “emotionally charged” portrayal of Agnes in “Hamnet”, said Nolfi in Entertainment Weekly. “Hot on her tail” is Renate Reinsve for her role in “Sentimental Value”, while “Wicked: For Good” will “boost” Cynthia Erivo into the “best actress crowd” with her “towering” performance as Elphaba.

Rose Byrne’s “brave turn as a mother and therapist whose life comes crashing down” in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is also causing a stir, said Davis in Variety. She looks “locked and loaded for her first Oscar bid”. And Emma Stone is in the running, too, for her role as a kidnapped pharmaceutical executive in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia”.

Best actor in a supporting role

Sean Penn “kicked up the intensity” with his “bold” turn as a military officer in “One Battle After Another”, said Nolfi in Entertainment Weekly. While his “brash” performance could “rub some the wrong way”, it definitely captured audiences’ attention.

But the category is “shaping up to be a two-horse race” between Benicio del Toro in “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value”, said Variety. Paul Mescal as Shakespeare in “Hamnet” adds more “tough competition”, said James on the BBC. This is “one of the year’s most volatile” and “best races to watch”.

Best actress in a supporting role

Ariana Grande is in the running to scoop best supporting actress with her turn as the “ditzy-yet-sensitive Glinda” in “Wicked: For Good”, said James on the BBC. She is a “sparkling comic delight” and the musical looks set to be one of this year’s “biggest hits”. And while horror films are often “dismissed” at the Oscars, a campaign is growing for Amy Madigan to secure a best supporting actress nomination for her role in Zach Cregger’s “spine-chilling” “Weapons”.

After “such a strong” performance as a revolutionary in “One Battle After Another”, this race seems to be Teyana Taylor’s to lose, said Entertainment Weekly. She will be vying for the top spot alongside Wunmi Mosaku for her “incredible” turn in “Sinners”.