The GOP's rising tide of unpopularity

It's sink or swim time. Will Republicans keep their heads above water?

The Capitol building.
(Image credit: Illustrated | iStock)

One of our major political parties is going to win Texas and its 38 electoral votes in November. Spoiler alert: It is not going to be the one that has not carried the Lone Star State since 1976, despite quadrennial fantasy pieces by pundits. Democrats should also not get too carried away about the state's House delegation, which is likely to remain red for the foreseeable future.

This doesn't mean the GOP has anything to celebrate going into this fall's congressional elections. The majority Republicans enjoyed at the beginning of Donald Trump's presidency disappeared two years later, leaving them with nothing to show for it except tax cuts, i.e., the only thing the party does when it controls both houses of Congress and the presidency. A net gain of 20 seats that would return them to power in the lower chamber is well-nigh impossible. A modest shift of five or so is just about imaginable, but it's far more likely to go in the other direction.

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Matthew Walther

Matthew Walther is a national correspondent at The Week. His work has also appeared in First Things, The Spectator of London, The Catholic Herald, National Review, and other publications. He is currently writing a biography of the Rev. Montague Summers. He is also a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow.