The Democrats' Senate strategy has a red state problem

To win the Senate, Democrats must avoid nationalizing elections. Can they pull it off in a presidential year?

The Capitol building.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Bill Chizek/iStock, -slav-/iStock)

Tuesday's victories in deep-red Kentucky, where the Democrats appear to have squeaked out a win for the governor's mansion, and increasingly blue Virginia, where the Democrats took decisive control of the state government, have buoyed the spirits of a party just coming off a panic about weak polling for their three presidential frontrunners in swing states. And they deserve to feel upbeat.

But Democrats shouldn't get ahead of themselves in their celebration, because these results don't reveal any material change in the overall landscape. Virginia has become a must-win for Democrats, not a swing state, and Kentucky is still emphatically Trump country. These victories confirmed the main pattern of 2018: The Democrats are gaining increasing support in once Republican suburban areas, but they are making little or no headway in rural white counties.

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Noah Millman

Noah Millman is a screenwriter and filmmaker, a political columnist and a critic. From 2012 through 2017 he was a senior editor and featured blogger at The American Conservative. His work has also appeared in The New York Times Book Review, Politico, USA Today, The New Republic, The Weekly Standard, Foreign Policy, Modern Age, First Things, and the Jewish Review of Books, among other publications. Noah lives in Brooklyn with his wife and son.