Senate GOP tax bill would cost $1.4 trillion, hit poor and middle class harder than estimated, CBO says

On Sunday, the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the tax overhaul Senate Republicans hope to pass this week, and like a previous analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), it found that the bill would increase the federal deficit by about $1.4 trillion over 10 years. The CBO also found that, compared to the JCT estimate, the bill would be worse for Americans earning less than $75,000, factoring in the changes to Medicaid, Medicare, and other health-related programs as well as zeroing out the Affordable Care Act individual mandate.

Under the CBO analysis, Americans earning up to $30,000 a year would be worse off by 2019, those earning $40,000 or less would take a hit by 2021, and Americans earning $75,000 or less would be worse off by 2027. Americans earning $100,000 to $500,000 a year would generally fare the best until 2027, when millionaires would reap the most benefits.

If you exclude all health care-related changes, every group would get some level of tax cut, the JCT found, when asked by Republicans. Republicans also argue that economic growth they say will be unleashed by the tax cuts will at least partly make up for the $1.4 trillion in deficit spending, though the friendliest outside analysis so far, from the Tax Foundation, finds that the Senate plan would still add hundreds of billions to the deficit. The CBO said neither it nor the JCT will have a full analysis of the economic impact of the Senate bill for probably weeks.

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