China is building its first military base in Africa. America should be very nervous.
In the new Great Game, America is getting trounced
Africa is likely to become one of the biggest stories of 2016, and not because of some horrific new disease or harrowing new war. Instead, an unprecedented new dynamic is about to shape the continent. The U.S. and China, major powers with a minor footprint, are both poised for much deeper and more direct involvement in African affairs.
And rather than finding themselves on a crash course, they're facing a more complex — and, for America, unnerving — situation. Thanks to the much different challenges and priorities facing both powers, African intervention is shaping up as a feast for China and a famine for the U.S.
Look to Djibouti for big clues about why. News is quietly breaking that China has sealed a deal to build its first military base in that little country, a former French colony strategically located across from Yemen on the Red Sea, squeezed between Eritrea and Somalia. Confirming years of under-the-radar suspicions, AFRICOM commander Gen. David Rodriguez told The Hill that the "logistics hub" and airfield will let China "extend their reach" into Africa over the course of an initial 10-year contract. Currently, The Hill observed, China can't do much more than stage some naval patrols out of Djibouti ports.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Given China's breakneck expansion into Africa, that's just not good enough. In Africa, China has found not just a market for money but for jobs and land — crucial components of sustained economic growth. As December's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation revealed, the Middle Kingdom wants to ensure privileged access to that kind of future. Although it's hard to unravel the details, Beijing used the Forum to pledge $60 billion in loans and export credits.
No, the Chinese aren't about to lap the U.S. in investment anytime soon, but the financials have taken on an extra edge at a moment when Beijing needs all the good news it can get. "China operates in Africa with greater aplomb and with more nuanced and mutually beneficial relationships than America's corporations and its federal [government]," as one private equity analyst noted at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The USG's most visible diplomatic effort in Africa, Power Africa, is sputtering. American businesses haven't sufficiently picked up the slack."
Which brings us to the very different Africa the U.S. confronts. While China is free to pursue its economic and financial interests with clarity and focus, allowing its military and political agenda to unfold accordingly, Washington finds itself scrambling to keep up with a sour security situation that doesn't play to its strengths. Instead of reaching into Africa's sub-Saharan heartland, where China is racking up lucrative or influential deals, the U.S. will have to stretch itself remarkably thin over the wide and barren expanse of Africa's northern tier.
AFRICOM officials, still headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany, recently announced a new strategic outlook that underscores the problem. AFRICOM's top three priorities reach from one end of Northern Africa to the other: "neutralizing" the jihadist al-Shabab group in Somalia to the east, while "containing" enemies like ISIS in Libya and Boko Haram, to the west, in Nigeria and the greater Lake Chad region.
These plans have a whiff of desperation about them. Although al-Shabab's influence has been significantly reduced, nearby Ethiopia just booted the U.S. out of a drone base Washington had hoped to expand in the southerly town of Arba Minch. In other words, as China sets up shop in Djibouti, the U.S. finds itself restricted to that country for its eastern African operations — a precarious toehold in a competitive environment.
In Libya, meanwhile, as ISIS suicide operations spearhead its so-called "liberation" of the country, no plan has emerged for how the U.S. might turn the tide. And in the fight against ISIS affiliate Boko Haram, the U.S. has so far managed to supply Nigeria with two dozen armored vehicles. At a time when the containment approach to ISIS has shown mixed results at best, it is hard to see America's involvement in Africa this year as much more than an under-resourced and reactive improvisation stretched across a vast and hostile landscape.
With the media's eyes fixed on the Mideast, Africa hasn't quite gotten the geostrategic attention it deserves. But this year, it could become a new albatross for the U.S. — and a new lifeline for China.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
James Poulos is a contributing editor at National Affairs and the author of The Art of Being Free, out January 17 from St. Martin's Press. He has written on freedom and the politics of the future for publications ranging from The Federalist to Foreign Policy and from Good to Vice. He fronts the band Night Years in Los Angeles, where he lives with his son.
-
'Unthinkable tragedy'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Passenger: 'pleasingly off-kilter' ITV crime drama
The Week Recommends There's 'plenty to be feared' in this British murder mystery set in a quiet northern town
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: March 27, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Ukraine's unconventional approach to reconstruction
Under the radar Digitally savvy nation uses popular app to file compensation claims, access funds and rebuild destroyed homes
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will Ukraine's leadership reset work?
Today's Big Question Zelenskyy hints at ousting of popular military chief, but risks backlash amid dwindling munitions, delayed funding and Russian bombardment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Imran Khan sentenced to 10 years: how powerful is Pakistan's military?
Today's Big Question The country's armed forces ignore country's economic woes, control its institutions and, critics say, engineer election results
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Iran's endgame?
Today's Big Question Tehran seeks to supplant US and Saudi Arabia as dominant power in Middle East while forcing Israel to end Gaza war
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Israel proposes two-month pause in Gaza war in exchange for all Hamas hostages
Speed Read Deal doesn't include an agreement to end war, but might be 'the only path that could lead to a ceasefire', said US officials
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Nato official warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years
Speed Read Civilians must prepare for life-changing conflict and mass mobilisation, says military chief
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak visits Kyiv to announce £2.5 billion in military support for Ukraine
Speed Read Surprise trip comes amid increased Russian bombardment and escalation of Middle East crisis
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
How Islamic State bombings in Iran could escalate regional war
The Explainer Terrorist group claims responsibility for deadly blasts on 'irredeemable foe' but Tehran likely to ramp up anti-US rhetoric
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published