The left-wing plan to rescue the Democratic Party
The party gains nothing by drifting to the center of the ideological spectrum
With fruitcakes in first and second place in the GOP presidential primary (Donald Trump and Ben Carson, respectively), and the party's seeming inability to find a single warm body to serve as speaker of the House, it's easy to argue, as Kevin Drum does, that the Republican Party is on the verge of collapse.
However, it is also the case, as Matt Yglesias writes, that Republicans are basically the governing party across most of the country. They fully control 25 state governments, compared to the Democrats' seven. They are certainly not guaranteed to lose in 2016. Yglesias thus concludes that the Democrats are a party in crisis without a serious plan to take back power at the state and local level.
But Yglesias overstates his case. On the one hand, it is true that the Dems have been obliterated on the state level, losing more than 900 state legislative seats since 2009. But it isn't true, as he argues, that nobody in the party is trying to address this issue. And his implicit argument that Democrats can win by running to the center is suspect.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Ed Kilgore is a former Democratic staffer, with good contacts in the party, and he reports that weakness at the state level is a constantly discussed problem in party circles. They haven't been able to do that much about it thus far, of course, but it's not like they're unaware or in denial. On the contrary, it's right below keeping the presidency on the priority list.
So why have Democrats been struggling at the state and local level? Yglesias has several explanations: structural over-representation of rural voters, who tilt conservative; the fact that the bulk of the monied class is conservative; gerrymandering; and so forth. All good reasons. However, he also implicitly embraces one of the hoariest Washington clichés: It's because Democrats are too left-wing — they've abandoned the center! Perhaps sensing that he's sounding disturbingly like America's Worst Pundit, he tiptoes up to this rather than stating it outright, but the conclusion is clear enough:
One problem with this argument is that conservative Democrats have already lost in droves. During the huge Republicans wave in 2010, it was overwhelmingly conservative Blue Dogs and New Democrats who got thrown out. The party leadership has been desperately trying to preserve its last few Blue Dog preserves in battleground states, but they lost a bunch more in 2014 too.
It is true that Democrats struggle to recruit candidates in conservatives states; many crazed reactionaries now run unopposed. And by all accounts the party leadership is none too competent. But it's simply not true to say that Democrats are marching left and throwing their right wing over the side, Hillary Clinton's proposed milquetoast expansions of the welfare state notwithstanding. Instead, the conservative wing of the party simply got beat.
Another hole in Yglesias' argument is that of turnout. Simply put, the bulk of Republican victories since 2009 can be chalked up to the midterm electorate being 10 to 20 percentage points smaller than the presidential one — and those midterm voters are far more conservative than the rest of the electorate.
This is a relatively recent development — in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won a smashing victory. But since then the voting population has evolved such that Democratic voters — younger and browner than average — are massively less likely to vote in midterm elections. Conversely, the bigger the electorate, the less conservative it is. Left-wing activists and analysts have been shouting themselves blue in the face about this for years. So has Bernie Sanders.
Seen so, the Democrats' de facto strategy of generally moving to the left makes some sense. After all, extant political reality makes it more important for committed liberals to vote during midterms, since their vote will count for more.
And it is not as if Republicans have been running to the center themselves — instead, they doggedly pursue their ideological objectives, many of which are deeply unpopular (total resistance to all abortion and gun control, for instance), almost regardless of electoral politics. But today they're stronger at the state level than at any time since 1928. It turns out that a committed and organized minority can pay vastly outsized political dividends.
The Democrats' strategy is thus far a halfhearted, pale shadow of the fervent ideological mobilization that the Republican base has been deploying for generations, but it basically makes sense. The end game is a politically activated base that fully understands that merely voting in presidential elections is totally inadequate to securing substantive liberal goals. It might not work, but it's got a better shot than being the party of triangulating sellouts.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ryan Cooper is a national correspondent at TheWeek.com. His work has appeared in the Washington Monthly, The New Republic, and the Washington Post.
-
Duchess of Gloucester: the hard-working royal you've never heard of
Under The Radar Outer royal 'never expected' to do duties but has stepped up to the plate
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Are 'judge shopping' rules a blow to Republicans?
Today's Big Question How the abortion pill case got to the Supreme Court
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Climate change is driving Indian women to choose sterilization
under the radar Faced with losing their jobs, they are making a life-altering decision
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published