Biden-mania shows the utter weakness of the Democratic Party's bench
How is it that the big potential wild card is a man who has run two presidential campaigns that were not at all successful?
The 2016 presidential race presents a huge opportunity for the rising stars of the Democratic Party. Unfortunately for Democrats, only Joe Biden seems interested in seizing it.
Hillary Clinton's poll numbers took a nose dive in June. Her favorability ratings dropped "sharply" in August. Then they took another dive in September. Bernie Sanders, the dream candidate of socialists, is out-polling her in New Hampshire, even though no one thinks he's suitable to represent the whole party.
I've argued over and over again that Hillary Clinton is not a proven winner. Her last electoral victory came in 2006, in which she defeated a Yonkers mayor, John Spencer, not exactly a titan of the GOP. Her heavily favored presidential campaign was defeated in 2008, and in the intervening years, she has added no significant accomplishments to her resume other than a fancy job title. Indeed, she may have added more baggage given the parlous state of Libya after her "smart power" intervention there, and given the twin sagas about her home-brew email server and her conflicts of interest as secretary of state.
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Hillary Clinton 2016: older, more scandal-ridden, and further out of touch.
So where is the Democratic bench? Martin O'Malley, the former governor of Maryland, is at 2 percent or less in the polls. Jim Webb, a conservative Democrat, hasn't even managed that much. Sanders is building a movement and trying to change the traditional parameters of American politics. But no one expects that he can actually assemble a coalition large enough to beat Clinton, much less a Republican.
How is it that the big potential wild card in the Democratic race is a man who has run two presidential campaigns that were not at all successful? Let's go through the record: Joe Biden had a plagiarism scandal derail one campaign, and he never got off the ground in 2008. Although he has proven himself reliable enough on abortion rights, the feminist left considers him a squish because he has given succor to those who believe taxpayer money should be quarantined from abortion. He's also supported late-term bans on the procedure.
On foreign policy he's all over the map. He supported the Iraq War, ruining any chance of going to the left of Hillary Clinton on that score. He also supported the partitioning of Iraq. Superficially, that may look prescient now that Iraq is tearing itself to pieces. But the truth is that a partition could only have been accomplished by sectarian war and bloodshed, and it would have inevitably created several zero-sum conflicts over the oil resources that are the only economic lifeline of any Iraqi state.
Besides, Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone, awkward man. That's part of what makes him lovable — at least when he is removed from the direct heat of political combat. In a world where every politician's word feels like the result of a focus-group test, Biden is refreshingly human. And as vice president, he hasn't been one of the chief antagonists of Republicans in the Obama administration. But Democrats must dread the possibility of him repeating those classic Biden moments, like when he told a wheelchair-bound Missouri state senator to stand up or when he stereotyped a large and growing American ethnic population.
It's simple, really. The post-Obama Democratic Party doesn't have much of a bench. It occasionally dreams about Elizabeth Warren. But beyond that there is no one of interest.
Look to the list of Democratic governors, who are now reliably elected to govern some pretty big states. There's Jerry Brown, the 77-year-old governor of California, another multiple presidential campaign loser. There is Andrew Cuomo of New York, a man who couldn't befriend a hungry three-legged dog. Cuomo was once thought to be a potential rival, but he is now loathed by Democrats for doing dirty deals with New York's Republican legislature.
Some of the promising Democratic governors are just too fresh to run for president; think New Hampshire's Maggie Hassan or Oregon's Kate Brown. Any southern Democrats? There's Terry McAuliffe, a lobbyist's pet. And Missouri's Jay Nixon, whose mismanaged reaction to unrest in Ferguson contributed to the rise of Black Lives Matter. Yikes.
Perhaps some senators will raise their profile. But for now, no one is panting after Bill Nelson, Brian Schatz, and Claire McCaskill. And until that day, the post-Obama Democratic Party bench looks like a mismatch for its base. Its leaders are too old, too white, too male, too moderate — one could even say too Biden — to be exciting.
It's a clichè to say that the Democratic Party wants to fall in love with its presidential candidate. But if Biden spiffs himself up as a potential suitor, they'll settle hard and quickly for Clinton.
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Michael Brendan Dougherty is senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is the founder and editor of The Slurve, a newsletter about baseball. His work has appeared in The New York Times Magazine, ESPN Magazine, Slate and The American Conservative.
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