3 reasons why an October surprise won't decide the 2012 race

The GOP is reportedly banking on bombshell revelations to taint Obama's record on national security. Could a last-minute development really be a game-changer?

Team Romney is planning an October surprise, but voters may already be too cynical to fall for the political Hail-Mary campaign tactic.
(Image credit: Dennis Van Tine/Retna Ltd/Corbis)

With the presidential election fast approaching, and Mitt Romney's path to victory narrowing, Republican operatives are preparing to release what they hope will be "a bombshell" to make President Obama look weak on terrorism, says Craig Unger at Salon. The plan is to cite intelligence information to argue that President Obama had a credible warning ahead of the assault on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi — which killed Libya Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans last month — but dropped the ball. They're calling it "the Jimmy Carter Strategy" — likening it to Carter's failed attempt to rescue U.S. hostages from Iran in 1980 — "or the October Surprise." Of course, campaign strategists always seem to be speculating about some last-minute shocker that could flip an election. (Read Mother Jones' excellent history of October surprises here.) But how often does that really happen? Here, three reasons why an October surprise is unlikely to decide the 2012 race:

1. The Obama-as-Carter argument is lame

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