The Hillary Test
Robert Shrum
In a period that has been less a traditional transition than an incremental inauguration, Obama so far has performed masterfully. Before the Mumbai terrorist attacks, he dominated the news and drove world financial markets with three successive press conferences, announcing a heavyweight economic team and previewing a deficit-heavy stimulus package. Last week, markets rose on the updraft of Obama’s words; evidently, there is a futures market for hope (though as Monday’s steep decline revealed, that doesn’t alter the dreary fundamentals).
At his national security press conference on Monday, Obama introduced a team that not long ago would have been as unexpected as his own election. He has engaged a retired Marine general as National Security Adviser and re-enlisted Bush’s Secretary of Defense to help engineer his withdrawal from Iraq. (I don’t share the apprehension of some Democrats about Obama’s choices; he won’t break his pledge on Iraq, which would shatter both his credibility and his party.)
The star turn belonged, of course, to Hillary Clinton, whose elevation to Secretary of State was opposed by some of Obama’s closest advisers. Some still worry about the risks, real or imagined. In the latter category is the notion that Clinton somehow will outshine President Obama. But no one in a cabinet outshines the President, and Obama has less to fear in this regard than most.
Other risks, however, are real. To dispel them, Clinton will have to pass the Hillary Test in the days and months ahead.
First, will she be a team player or a barely disguised competitor?
During the making of this Secretary of State, the leaks from her camp weren’t encouraging. She was inclined to say “yes” and then “no” and then “yes” again; she had to pick her subordinates; she needed guarantees about her role. High Clintonian drama was thus introduced into the precincts of No Drama Obama. Some of Clinton’s concerns were reasonable, but there was no reason to leak them—except as a pre-emptive excuse in the event of a vetting failure (think Bill, not her). Then the leaks abruptly stopped.
The test grows harder once she is in office. It will be difficult to sustain trust and coherence in foreign policy-making if unsourced stories proliferate, assigning Clinton credit for success, offering inside accounts of her dissents or blaming Obama for failing to heed her advice. She must resist such temptation, and I believe she will, not least because a split would likely endanger her future more than his.
However, it’s also possible that the new President will forge a genuine bond with the primary campaign rival he once said he liked “well enough.” Their relationship, after all, is a two-way street. The oft-cited comparison with Lincoln’s selection of his archrival, William Seward, for Secretary of State is instructive. Lincoln often walked across Lafayette Park to Seward’s home to confer with him. Seward, who in an early memo had proposed that Lincoln devolve presidential powers to him, became Lincoln’s closest friend in the Cabinet. Obama won’t be walking the two miles to Clinton’s residence off Embassy Row, but these latter-day rivals will succeed only if both principals work for it.
For her part, Clinton must be—and be seen to be—genuinely comfortable yielding center stage to Obama, as she did at the Democratic Convention. She will also have to foreswear a shadow political operation, including poll briefings from her strategist Mark Penn, the salient points of which would no doubt find their way into the press. (Come to think of it, she would have been better off without those poll briefings during her campaign, as well.) And President Bill Clinton will have to discipline himself to play a supporting role—for Obama as well as for his wife. Any hint of a policy split with the former president would be instantly attributed to Hillary.
Finally, atmospherics matter. In the 2000 Gore campaign, I witnessed the media’s fascination with each scintilla of interaction—every smile or scowl exchanged—between Al Gore and Bill Clinton. Any sign of discomfort generated speculation, headlines and damage. The same unforgiving klieg light will shine on the new President and Secretary of State when they’re together—or if they’re not together enough.
Hillary Clinton now has a big job. If she still aspires to the top job, she can’t afford to treat this period as an eight-year transition to her Presidency. If she contemplates a candidacy in 2016—and I suspect she does—the way forward is to focus on being an effective and loyal Secretary of State. Then, around 2014, she can resign and run from a position of greater strength than she was afforded in 2008. She will have no need of stories about sniper fire in the Balkans. And she will have proved that she can manage a large organization better than she ran her presidential campaign. In other words, to fulfill her ambition, Clinton must ignore it. For now.
Clinton was unquestionably a risky choice. But the move can pay off for Obama, for the country and ultimately for Clinton herself if she remembers something Obama himself has been repeating lately: We only have one President at a time.
That’s the Hillary Test.
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14 Comments
Posted by Soura Dasgupta, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 12:28 am What enmity the Clinton's have incurred by catching you spreading rumors about Bill's sexual escapades!
Posted by D. H. Strong, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 7:57 am What Hillary and Barack BOTH have to remember is that they are up against a REAL enemy from within. Rove is not dead. "JEB" is already leading a "shadow government" -- his exact words -- intent on undermining and sabotaging everything Obama tries. After two years of wailing that the Democratic majority was "obstructionist," the bushdick crime cabal is busy installing as many of its "loyal bushies" in as many areas where they can derail as many of Obama's policies as possible, and you can bet the repuke minority that wailed so loudly about threats of filibustering will filibuster every chance they get. Have the Clintons already forgotten the machine that printed up "Impeach Clinton" before he was even sworn into office? Have they forgotten how they were hounded over ever dime and minute unaccounted for, and called liars whenever they responded? Are they not aware of the outright hatred the propaganda purveyors hold for them and Obama both? Hillary's real test will be to remember who the REAL enemy is -- and to not be put on the defensive again, but keep the media and the public focused on the disastrous consequences of the past eight years, and the neocon's continuing agenda of seizing absolute power any way they can. As for Hillary running in 2016, I doubt it. She's 61 now. I suspect the strategy, if the world doesn't go all to hell in the meantime, is for Biden, who is 66 now, to step down in 2012 in favor of a younger running mate, when Obama no longer has to answer to the charge of inexperience, in effect providing a built-in transition for 2016. Don't expect the Bushiosi and their cohorts to take that lying down. The Prescott-Walker-Bush crime cartel has been planning on a permanent dynasty ever since WW2. And since it is a primary tactic of the neocons to accuse their enemies of their own nefarious purposes -- make no mistake, they DO regard all their political opponents as outright enemies, and recognize no such concept as bipartisanship or cooperation for the good of everyone -- the first thing they'll shriek is "liberals are planning to stay in power permanently! Liberal dictatorship! Liberals want to rule the world! Socialism! Socialist dynasties!" And never mind that it was Barbara Bush who didn't just admit, but boasted, that her family would have stayed in power permanently -- their plan was eight years of Herbert, eight years of "Jeb," eight years of Dubya, eight years of John Jr, eight years of George P, and so on -- if her husband hadn't been caught in his Iran-Contra treason. (Her phrase was "caught up in Ronnie's mistake," which of course earned her no points from Nancy, but it was Herbert's cronies who threatened to roll on him if they got sent up.) THAT'S what Barack and Hillary need to remember. The REAL threat is not the Taliban, except insofar as the neocons trained and armed them in the first place. The domestic terrorists of the "shadow government" are reason enough to watch each other's back.
Posted by Exocet, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 8:50 am I've never seen such worry wart helicopter parenting by Obama supporters on his behalf? What is the real problem? I thought Obama was this super confident world superstar leader? Why all the concern trolling? Can you imagine anyone concern trolling on Sarkozy's behalf or even Putin's behalf? Their very personalities tell you they mean business and no one will cross them. Is Obama's leadership in doubt that he needs to be protected like some fragile endangered species? My dear Bob I know you mean well, but your over protectiveness is weakening Obama before his leadership personality begins to take shape in the public mind. It sounds like anything short of Bill and Hillary Clinton walking around in Burkas will be considered competition. So what's Obama's test? Since you sort of let him off the hook like some pampered child, I'll volunteer my ten cents. Obama's test is that he better find some authority and presence when he comes out in front of the public. He can't be the behind the scenes manager manipulating his National Security and Economic teams. We are in the big leagues now, its all front room leadership. Oh and he should stop saying the presidency is about his vision and leadership, if it were true it would be obvious. Can you imagine Sarkozy or Putin having to claim they are in charge all the time? Obama's test is to find his leadership personality and to begin to fill the stage. Obama's got to shine on his own. There's no point trying to dim the Clinton light so that Obama can shine Bob. If Obama can't grab the spotlight, trust me someone else will.
Posted by Phoebe - NYC, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 9:31 am The Obamanation's selections for his team are not brilliant, and the only direction the stock market has gone is DOWN. You idiot MSM hypes cannot see what a disaster this man is with his total lack of ethics, morals,credibility, experience and leadership skills. The empty suit has no respect for our constitution, our laws, our freedoms and democracy; he only wants to be annointed "The Messiah" and trade our freedoms for his socialistic programs. He is a racist, hell bent on destroying America, and everything we stand for. God help us all.
Posted by sel, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 10:04 am This from the most unsuccessful presidential political consultant in history. Puhlease. Hillary will be great, just as Barack Obama knew she would be. Try accepting that you were wrong about her, Bob, as you were about so many other things, and move on with your life. And try, for once, to stop your sexism from shining through so brightly. This a job. She has a right to know what she is getting into when it means giving up a another job she loves. Oh, and stop insulting our new President with your paranoia. He knows what he is doing.
Posted by Amber, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 10:33 am I don't know what world you're living in sir, but Hillary Clinton will always outshine baby-boy Barack! She should be the President and he (with his diplomacy skills) should be Secretary of STate.
Posted by myskylark, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 1:08 pm Hillary Clinton has a well-earned reputation of being a team player. When she got to the senate so many expected her to seek the spotlight and upstage her colleagues. That never happened. she took her proper place as a freshman and paid her dues. She got along well with her colleagues on both sides of the aisle. She worked hard and, as usual, had a very steep learning curve. I think Obama's choice of HIllary Clinton will prove beneficial for both of them, and more importantly, beneficial for the country. I'm not so sure that Clinton really expects to run a viable campaign for president in 2016 - she will be sixty-eight years old. But I do think that she is anxious to make a difference in the world (don't forget - she's a Methodist) and in the process leave a legacy that will reflect well on her in history. I think she would consider that a job well done.
Posted by brujos1, Tuesday, December 2, 2008, 1:24 pm Bob Schrum's analysis is mainly on target with one huge exception, Bill Clinton. Having read his book, that could be another oversight with no excuses. Bill should never be summarily dismissed. Hillary comes in a package, and if Obama makes one false move on any of a number of major interconnected fronts, the Clintons will run for cover. That appears unlikely now, but Obama is literally gambling that Hillary can control Bill. That certainly was not the case during the campaign. Furthermore, Hillary has sacrificed her Senate base of independence. Eight years is a long time for a president to win every foreign policy battle so intertwined with other policies, especially with Obama and White House advisers, Biden and Bill Richardson in the mix. And--eight years is a very long time for a 61-year old ambitious woman to wait. Only time will tell.
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