Where did Obama's voters go?
Why young and minority voters stayed home after boosting Obama in 2008
Barack Obama voters watch a television at an election night party in 2008.
(Reuters/Corbis/Paul Hanna)
Republicans benefited Tuesday from a sharp drop in turnout among so-called "surge" voters from 2008 -- namely African Americans and voters under thirty who overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama last year. In Virginia -- where Democrats lost the governor's job after Obama took the long-red state in 2008 -- only 10 percent of voters were under 30, down from 22 percent last year. Why did "Obama World" stay home?
Obama has lost his touch: President Obama tried to coax out his supporters, says Dan McLaughlin in RedState, to help Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia -- but Republicans won both gubernatorial races. Obama, though still popular, was powerless to transfer his minority and youth voters to his allies in 2009, and he won't be able to do it in 2010, either.
"Barack Obama: Not helping Democrats"
Young voters never vote in off years: Obama's voters haven't gone anywhere, says Dave Brockington in Lawyers, Guns, and Money. "Minorities, the young, the less wealthy, new voters do tend to stay home in odd years." If anything, Tuesday's results suggest that Obama still has plenty of "pulling power" -- more of the "Obama coalition" turned out in New Jersey, where Obama campaigned "heavily" for Jon Corzine, than in Virginia, which Obama "basically ignored."
"It's the turnout, stupid"
The economy will determine 2010: These "incredible shrinking turnout numbers" should worry the White House, says Walter Shapiro in Politics Daily. The sharp drop in youth turnout in New Jersey and Virginia underscored how mad voters are about 10 percent unemployment. But it's risky to draw conclusions from what happened to the "unpopular" Jon Corzine and the "lackluster" Creigh Deeds -- the turnout and results in 2010 will depend on how the economy looks next fall, not on Election Day 2009.
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6 Comments
Posted by JMo, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 3:41 pm Young people trusted Obama, but regardless of what he says, they're still extrememly hesitant to trust other politicians.Not to mention the fanatacism surrounding Obama during his campaign which stirred up passion amongst the youth, which obviously isn't present with the gubernatorial races.
Posted by Bill A., Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 4:02 pm I'll tell you where they were, the same place I was a year after Clinton beat Bush. At home or out with friends. Most voters don't become regular voters utill there in their mid 20's from what i've observed in my 17 years of being able to vote.This means nothing for 2012.
Posted by Classicist, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 4:03 pm Because that surge represented people who were voting not because they believed in the ideas of their candidate but because it was fashionable. Their vote was a manifestation of some emotional impulse. Those impulses generally don't exist in gubernatorial or congressional elections, if only because such elections don't lend themselves easily to youtube and agitprop.
Posted by you tube , Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 10:44 pm ACORN have an off day?
Posted by Miss Happ, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 10:46 pm Guess they broke their crayons. No one TOLD them what to do, so they watched DWTS, or some other brainless show. or got their flu shots. oh, yeah, their government ran out of vaccine to save them. Save yourselves, because the government is not the savior. YOU ARE. save yourselves.
Posted by Lorraine Watkins, Thursday, November 5, 2009, 8:33 am Nope. The right wingers and their media are dead wrong. The Obama voters remain highly energized and engaged. They are almost single handedly preserving some modicum of fairness in the versions of health care legislation. They stayed home because they are not going to vote for corporate conservative DINOs. And they are becoming restive at Obama's dilly dally approach to governing.
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