An Obama referendum?
What off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York mean for President Obama
Are today's elections a vote on Obama's presidency?
© Gary Fabiano/Pool/Corbis
In what otherwise appears to be a quiet, off-year election, both parties are watching three hotly contested elections—the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia, and a House race in upstate New York—to determine whether the political winds have shifted since President Obama took office. Republicans, hoping for a sweep, say their inroads in Democratic leaning states are a sign of Obama fatigue, while Democrats say the elections hinge on entirely local issues. Is this a referendum on Obama's performance in the White House?
The elections are an Obama referendum—but not entirely: A common thread in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, says Marc Ambinder in The Atlantic, is "out-party, conservative enthusiasm, which is inversely correlated to how well Obama is perceived to be leading the country." But the connection only goes so far—New Jersey's Democratic governor, Jon Corzine, is "much less popular" in his state than Obama, and Republicans backing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York are angry at local party leaders, not Washington.
"Think again: Breaking through the election spin"
Tuesday's elections mean nothing: "All this punditry about these races is mostly nonsense," says Michael Tomasky in Britain's Guardian. In 2001—when George W. Bush was at the same point in his presidency as Obama is now—Democrats won the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and Republicans picked up eight House seats the following year. All this talk about this being an Obama referendum is "a function of the fact that it's a dead time" in the political cycle and political reporters need something to do.
"On the importance (or not) of off-year elections"
Clearly, much has changed since Obama's election: Obama tried to help Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey, says Jeremy Pelofsky in Reuters, and he tried to help Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia. But Obama's support may not have been enough this time. If Republicans win both races, they could "rebuild some momentum after being trounced by Democrats last year."
"The First Draft: off-year election day could spell trouble for Obama"
This is a referendum on Republican ideas: This could be a "good day for the right," says Kathryn Jean Lopez in National Review. If Bob McDonnell beats Creigh Deeds in Virginia, the message will be that Republican candidates can win if they "attract people with ideas and plans." And the media will try to spin the Republican infighting in NY-23 as a sign of "a self-destructive 'vast right-wing conspiracy,'" but Doug Hoffman's strong showing proves that the GOP can win once it "figures out what the heck it wants to fight for."
"The Right returns?"
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5 Comments
Posted by Gut Shot, Tuesday, November 3, 2009, 5:51 pm BO is a Marxist. BO is surrounding himself with Marxists. Wake up people and learn about these people that he is courting. Andy Sterns, George Soros, Van Jones, Cas Susteren. Don't take my word for it. Read their bio's. Prove me wrong. Please prove me wrong. What is the SEIU? Learn about it. Think things are beginning to look better for us right now? Wait until early next year. You will see how far down the drain BO has taken us. Marxist plus socialist plus commie equals BO and advisors. God help us....please.
Posted by Gut Shot, Tuesday, November 3, 2009, 7:37 pm It's official. My great state of Virginia has elected a republican governor, lt. governor, and attorney general. We are the first state to reject Obummers referendum of socialism, his commie cronies, and Marxist policies he is trying to force upon us. Watch what happens in 2010.
Posted by Congratulations, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 12:41 am Congratulations, Gut Shot and the state of Virginia! Virginia led the way in 1993 and the state leads the way to the 2010 election!..... A cautionary note: BO will not pay any attention to this election. He believes his 2008 win entitles him to foist his opinion on America no matter what the citizens say or do. How many times has the public option in the healthcare bill died and yet it still lives. Write to your congressmen and women. They know they are vulnerable even if BO is too self involved..... narcissist at play.
Posted by davide, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 9:24 am Virginia and New Jersey are non issues. The voters , in those states, did what they have done for decades. The voted in a party opposite of the President. The real story is the meltdown of the GOP. The split is becoming obvious. The moderate Republicans versus the intolerant Conservatives. Look at New York 23 as an indicator of things to come. Division and revenge against each other will prevent them from achieving their various agendas. They cannot win without each other so they will continue to lose.
Posted by non issue, Wednesday, November 4, 2009, 10:51 am Davide, I think I knew you when your name was David. Are you my wifes gay hair stylist? You should be commenting on the vote in Maine on tuesday concerning gay marriage. The republican party will not continue to lose. As more and more understand BO's commie agenda and the company he keeps the tide will turn. And it will wash right over your liberal ass. Better learn to swim or tread water.Congratulations Virginia and New Jersey.
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